my guesses for 2010:
apple will end its exclusivity contract with at&t (if not then there will be further android growth)
blackberry marketshare will drop and keep dropping (good)
windows mobile will start to disappear (hardware vendors will drop it, end user demand is low as well)
webos will keep palm afloat, but not for long
android adoption will surge
the smartphone market will mainly consist of iphones and android phones

and my intentions:
at some point to get either an android or maemo phone. have it last for at least 2-3 years. switch to t-mobile.

update 1/3/2011:
so how right was i? i’m pretty sure iphones will be on verizon in 2011 (not 2010). i believe blackberry marketshare is neither growing or shrinking in vast numbers, but rather remaining stagnant. windows phones did not disappear and surprisingly microsoft came out with a new version of their mobile operating system called windows phone 7. however, i don’t think anyone expects it to make much headway in the already crowded market. palm did disappear as it was swallowed up by HP. though, HP intends to keep webos alive. android adoption was indeed crazy in 2010. and yes, the market is pretty much down to apple’s iOS and google’s android.

i did get an android phone and i did switch to t-mobile. since i bought a somewhat obsolete phone though, there’s no way it’s going to last 2 years. i already plan on getting a t-mobile g2 sometime in 2011.